Florida

In Q3, Florida’s real estate market continued to experience strong demand. Closed home prices across the state remained relatively flat, rising just 0.5% from the previous year. The average price for a single-family home statewide was just under $575,000.

Despite prices holding steady, the number of homes sold dipped slightly by 2.6%, totaling 64,749. At the same time, the median days on the market rose to 42, marking a 55% slower pace compared to 2023.

Key Trends & Predictions for the Rest of the Year

1. Persistent Population Influx (Demand)

Florida continues to draw new residents from states like California, New York, and Illinois, thanks to its strong job market, favorable tax policies, and warmer climate. This steady influx, particularly into areas like Tampa and Orlando, is boosting housing demand and spurring new residential development.

Given this, the state is expected to see substantial population growth, which should keep the housing market strong, especially in urban and suburban locales. This steady stream of new residents will likely support real estate prices and prevent any major downturn in the market.

2. Redevelopment of Aging Properties

A major trend that took off in 2024 is the strategic redevelopment of aging condominiums, especially in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. With many buildings now more than 30 years old, Florida’s strict safety regulations are driving costly upgrades. Redevelopment is emerging as a practical solution, transforming older buildings into modern, compliant, and profitable structures.

This trend reflects Florida’s commitment to safety, modernization, and meeting housing demands. In the short term, however, the concerns over large HOA assessments have significantly impacted condo sales, with the Miami/Fort Lauderdale MSA seeing a 13.1% decline in condo sales year-over-year in Q3.

3. Hybrid Work and Office Space

As remote and hybrid work models grow, demand for office spaces is changing. Investors and developers are adapting by repurposing or integrating them into mixed-use developments. This shift is especially evident in Florida’s business hubs like Miami.

4. November 5 Election Results

Florida is experiencing an early short-term slowdown, with market activity dipping as uncertainty around new policies and interest rate changes grows. This “wait-and-see” approach is typical in election years, as buyers and sellers assess potential shifts in regulations, taxes, and fiscal policies​.

The new administration may introduce policy changes related to housing affordability, tax incentives, and mortgage regulations — all of which could shape the market’s long-term direction. Meanwhile, imbalances in housing supply and demand are expected to keep driving prices up, especially in Florida’s most popular areas.

5. Suburban and Exurban Home Construction

Affordability concerns are pushing new construction toward suburban and exurban areas, where land is cheaper. Builders are developing larger communities outside city centers, especially north of Orlando and west of Tampa, offering buyers more space at lower prices.

6. Hurricane Helene & Milton market impact:

The Gulf Coast of our beloved Sunshine State faced back-to-back hurricane landings in Q3, with “Helene” and “Milton” causing unprecedented storm surge and property damage.

In the immediate aftermath of a major hurricane, real estate sales often decline as potential buyers weigh concerns about property damage, insurance, and future storm risks. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that this slowdown can extend for months as attention turns to recovery and rebuilding.

Post-hurricane, there is often an increased demand for newly constructed homes that incorporate hurricane-resistant materials and designs. Properties built to meet updated building codes may see a rise in value, as they provide better protection from future storms. This trend is especially prominent in coastal regions that experience frequent hurricanes.

In summary, Florida remains a hotspot for real estate, with the upcoming year presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers, sellers, and investors. Expect a dynamic market shaped by evolving trends and strategic shifts driven by demographic, economic, political, and even climate factors. Stay tuned!

Actionable Advice for Florida Agents

1. Plan for after the November 5 election.
   In election years, the economy tends to avoid big swings, making this a good time for your clients to take action. While the election outcome brings some uncertainty, remind them that the market has historically stayed pretty steady. The result could also influence the Department of Justice’s approach as they continue watching the effects of NAR’s settlement and policy changes.
2. Focus on listings.
   Despite some turbulence in real estate, especially on the buyer side, listings remain stable. As compensation reductions on the buyer broker side continue in the wake of the NAR settlement, now is the perfect time to put an extra 10% of your time and marketing budget into securing listings.
3. Stay Florida Strong.
   Florida continues to be a leader in economic growth. Keep an eye on local markets, upcoming developments, and capital investments, as they drive demand. Florida’s strong economy and resilient real estate sector make it a market worth watching and investing in.
4. Communicate your value.
   With shifts in the industry, it’s more important than ever to clearly communicate your value to potential clients. As the landscape changes, charm alone won’t be enough to win over clients. Equip yourself with solid knowledge about the process, and be ready to educate clients on why your expertise matters. These changes will highlight the most capable agents in the market.